This stock is still on watch. Now has stabilized after the Guggenheim rally. Stock well above 50 day and has a lot of headroom to 200 day resistance at $4. Still waiting for a break of $3 on some volume to buy.
Post by Gene Editing on Sept 12, 2016 5:58:25 GMT -6
Guggen: Don’t Let This One Get Away Scynexis Is Catching Our Eye After Summer Vacation: We continue to remain positive on SCYX (BUY, $3.12) post our initiation of coverage in mid August, as the company is still successfully executing upon its stated business objectives. We believe that earnings upside to levels not reflected in consensus expectations will be driven by SCYX's pipeline advancements, and this should move shares higher. SCYX's flagship product, SCY-078, is differentiated as a potential IV-oral step-down therapy for invasive fungal infections, an area of unmet need that is difficult to treat. We think SCY-078 has potential to reach $1B in sales by 2025+. See our initiation report here. We highlight key investment positives and updates below. Antifungals market is large and growing: Currently, ~7.6MM patients are treated annually for fungal infections. Invasive fungal infections are complications in immunocompromised patients, which include cancer patients with chemotherapyinduced neutropenia and transplant recipients receiving immunosuppressive therapy. The expansion of these populations has led to an increased incidence of invasive fungal infections. We believe there is a high unmet medical need to address the limitations of current therapies, such as gaps in the antifungal spectrum, unwanted side effects, limited dosing flexibility, and resistance. SCY-078 has blockbuster potential in fungal infections: SCY-078 is in development for invasive candidiasis (IC, Phase 2) and recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (rVVC, Phase 2). In IC, we believe SCY-078 could be the only IV to oral step-down available for first-line treatment. Phase 2 data in IC showed antifungal activity in the oral formulation, which can complement any IV echinocandin or be used with IV SCY-078, which is an alternative for patients with echinocandin-resistant strains. Oral SCY-078 would be the only oral alternative to azoles for azole-resistant strains. A Phase 2 study in IC is expected to start in 1Q17 and will compare IV/oral SCY-078 to standard of care. Regarding the rVVC opportunity, SCYX reported positive top-line Phase 2 data in a proof of concept study of SCY-078 in acute VVC. The trial showed a high clinical cure rate (~78%) and a good safety profile. Additional Phase 2 data showing four-month recurrence rates for rVVC and IC is expected in 3Q16. SCY-078 has promising durability: In August, SCYX announced that the FDA granted SCY-078 orphan drug designation (+7 years exclusivity) for the treatment of invasive Aspergillus infections. Earlier this year, the company also received orphan drug designation in invasive Candida infections and a Qualified Infectious Disease Product (QIDP) designation (+5 years of exclusivity). This means SCY-078 could have 12 years of market exclusivity once approved. In addition, SCY-078 has a composition of matter patent that expires in 2030, and a pending patent application could extend protection through 2035. Therefore, we believe that, if SCY-078 is approved, the drug could be a large, durable business for SCYX, which could fund future organic and external growth opportunities. Potential Catalysts: 1) 3Q16 – SCY-078 – two follow-ups including IC and rVVC; 2) 4Q16 – SCY-078 Phase 1 IV program safety data and start study of SCY-078 in refractory fungal patients; 3) End 2017 – SCY-078 Phase 2 data for IC; 4) 2020 – SCY-078 Phase 3 IC data, file for IC, approval and launch.
Considering the macro $SCYX is well worth considering here. Stock has rallied off the Guggenheim report and the company presentation on Sep 7. The stock rallied early on friday before selling off with rest of the market. Might occur today again if the market continues to correct which would result in a good risk/reward trade. Stock appears destined to at least test $4. Downside support around $2.70-2.80.
The basing action after the Guggenheim report rally is pretty constructive. Very different pattern than Jun effort at upper channel. Hanging above 50 day and it has now rolled up and is slowly moving toward 200 day. This could be a big mover at some point but might need the golden cross first.
Under: Been on the sidelines for a bit holding (building) cash. Now that "BIGLEY" has rolled out the tax plan its time to jump in.
Dec 21, 2017 19:06:02 GMT -6
martyc: Looks like you are buying Msft again!
Dec 15, 2017 11:23:29 GMT -6
martyc: The news that Trump called Rupert to congratulate him sure seems to indicate that this is heading to approval
Dec 15, 2017 11:22:23 GMT -6
Under: DIS finally getting some traction.?
Dec 14, 2017 17:08:45 GMT -6
martyc: I took an entry level position in DIS. Will add eventually to overweight when it becomes clearer that the deal will go thru. Can't believe how well positioned they will be. 60% Hulu. 20% of content watched on NFLX they can pull. More in thread
Dec 14, 2017 11:05:16 GMT -6
Under: Great posts on $DIS
Dec 13, 2017 17:50:49 GMT -6
Under: $ROKU Citron on a war path.
Nov 28, 2017 15:11:20 GMT -6
Under: $HAS takeover bid for $MAT?
Nov 10, 2017 16:16:07 GMT -6
martyc: Not looking like the market will provide any discounted opp for SGMO. Call was just too professional and all signs indicate they are on a great path for commercialization. Happy with core but wish I had some trading shs
Nov 10, 2017 9:04:05 GMT -6
martyc: For anyone looking to find an entry point into SGMO, I'm almost hoping is sells off in next few days so I can add more. They are really clicking but the fact they haven't signed new deals might cause some to exit. Watching as I have room for trading shs
Nov 9, 2017 18:28:09 GMT -6
martyc: Been an interesting ride so far. I figured the Bears would be about this good but hoped the O wouldn't look so lame. Another building yr but still possible to get to 8-8 IMO
Nov 9, 2017 18:26:08 GMT -6
Under: whats up with your Bears this year Marty?
Nov 9, 2017 17:35:25 GMT -6
martyc: Hope you were long ROKU. I wanted to see Q first so missed out
Nov 9, 2017 7:08:53 GMT -6